Can Trent Frederic become the player the Edmonton Oilers thought they were acquiring? It's a question that has been on the minds of fans and analysts alike, as the winger's performance in Edmonton has been a stark contrast to his time with the Boston Bruins. The numbers don't lie: in 75 regular-season games with the Oilers, Frederic's statistics have taken a nosedive, leaving many to wonder if he's ever going to be the player the team envisioned.
In my opinion, the key to understanding Frederic's journey lies in the numbers. Let's take a closer look at his performance in Boston and Edmonton, and try to make sense of the numbers.
One thing that immediately stands out is the drop in expected goal share. In Boston, Frederic had a 55% goal share, but in Edmonton, that number plummeted to 35%. This suggests that Frederic is struggling to score goals, and that his luck may not be on his side. However, what makes this particularly fascinating is the fact that Frederic's points per 60 in Edmonton would normally make him a healthy scratch or even demoted. But his long-term deal (with a no-movement clause) means he is going to play every game.
This raises a deeper question: what happened to Frederic in the 2024-25 season before the high-ankle sprain in February? News reports from late February 2025 discussed the injury, but I can find no reports of anything from October through December. It's a mystery that needs to be unraveled, as it could provide insight into the downswing in speed and effectiveness that Frederic experienced.
Another mystery is what evidence there is to suggest that Frederic should play against elite competition. Puck IQ tracks numbers versus elites, and with notable exceptions, Frederic has not performed at a level that would suggest using him against the league's best would be productive. This means time spent on the top two lines won't be successful.
So, what does the future hold for Trent Frederic? In my view, the ideal deployment for Frederic would come on a softer minutes line with a top-flight centre. If coach Mike Babcock runs Frederic with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and another veteran on a third line, that trio could outscore mid-level and lesser competition. However, if the Oilers start the season in the same way Kris Knoblauch deployed Frederic on opening night (on the top line with Connor McDavid), the results are likely to be disappointing and the experiment short-lived.
In conclusion, while there are mysteries surrounding Trent Frederic's performance in Edmonton, the numbers suggest that he has the potential to be productive in a depth role in the bottom six. If he plays with the abandon displayed for years in Boston and with Colton Dach late in the regular season with Edmonton, Oilers fans will love him despite a most difficult start to his time with the team. But will he be able to live up to the expectations that the team had when they acquired him? Only time will tell.
